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Demographic Transition Model

Demographic Transition Model by rgamesby
Think about it

The Demographic Transition Model graphs Birth rate, Death rate and Natural Increase.  The word demographic simply means population, and transition relates to change.  Therefore this model proposes what should happen to a population over time and how it should CHANGE.

If birth rate is greater than death rate the population will increase. If the death rate is greater than birth rate the population will naturally decrease. The greater the difference the greater the rate of Natural Increase. The rate of Natural Increase is much higher in developing countries of the world and many countries in MEDCs are actually experiencing population decline.

The demographic transition model is set out in 5 stages and was based on the United Kingdom.  These can be seen below:

The Demographic transition model

1) Try this exercise on interpreting the Demographic Transition Model

2) Population match up exercise

3) Using the text opposite attempt to complete the table on this word document

4) Could there be a stage 5? What could happen in stage 5? What consequences would that have for governments?

5) Try a BBC bytesize test bite


Major patterns and reasons for those patterns are summarised in the table below.  

Stage 1 - High fluctuating
Stage 2 population increase
Stage 3 Population increase
Stage 4 low fluctuating
Stage 5 - ageing & decline
UK in the past
Pre 1780
1780 to 1880
1880 to 1940
Post 1940
Present examples
Bolivia, India
Canada, USA
Russia, Germany, Japan
Birth rates
High due to;
1. Cultural or religious beliefs encouraging large families
2. Lack of contraception
3. Parents have lots of children to compensate for high Infant mortality
4. Children work on the land
As stage 1
Start to decline due to;
a) Increased access to contraception
b) Infant mortality falls so there is less need to have a large family
c) Industrialisation and mechanisation means less workers are required.
d) Wealth increase and people are more materialistic, so want less children.
Stay low because of reasons in stage 3.
Are very low and the countries suffer from low fertility. Materialism and the desire for family size massively affect birth rates 
Death rates
High due to disease, Famine, poor diet and hygiene, little medical science.
Start to decrease due to improvements in medical care, sanitation and water supply, supply and cleanliness of food.
Continue to fall. developments such as underground sewers, medical developments such as penicillin, surgery such as heart bypasses and inoculations help.
Stay low.
Rise slightly as ageing people reach the end of their lives

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